Learn how strategies are measured
Short guides written for traders who want to understand the numbers before they trust them. Each one explains a method, shows the arithmetic and says what it cannot tell you.
How ATLAS measures a trading strategy
The exact method behind every ATLAS figure: closed candles, one position at a time, a stop at 1.5 ATR and a target at 2 R, raw results without costs, a sample size on every number and a statistical test before any claim.
Expectancy in trading: the number that matters more than win rate
Expectancy is the average result of a trade expressed in R. Learn the formula, see why a 70 percent win rate can lose money and a 40 percent one can make it, and how sample size and costs change the picture.
Win rate and risk to reward: how the two fit together
The win rate you need to break even depends on your risk to reward ratio: 50 percent at 1 to 1, 33 percent at 2 to 1, 25 percent at 3 to 1. Learn the formula, the effect of costs and what losing streaks look like.
How to backtest a strategy without fooling yourself
A backtest can look excellent and mean nothing. Learn the usual traps, look-ahead bias, overfitting, ignored costs and a missing benchmark, and the habits that make a historical test honest.
Position sizing: how much to risk on each trade
Position size decides how a losing streak feels. Learn the fixed percentage method with a worked EURUSD example, what ten losses in a row cost at 0.5, 1 and 2 percent, and why a 50 percent loss needs a 100 percent gain.
Monte Carlo simulation for trading strategies, explained
A Monte Carlo simulation redraws the trades of a strategy thousands of times to show how much of a result is luck of the order. Learn how it works, how to read the percentiles and its real limits.
How many trades do you need before a result means something?
A win rate measured on 30 trades can be off by 18 points either way. See how the margin of error shrinks with 100, 400 and 1,000 trades, why overlapping trades inflate a sample, and how ATLAS handles it.
Spread, slippage and commissions: the costs a backtest forgets
Costs are paid on every trade and they weigh the most on small stops. Learn how to express spread and slippage in R, why raw backtest results overstate real ones and how to account for them.
Drawdown: what it measures and how to read it
Drawdown is the fall from a peak to the next low of your account. Learn how maximum drawdown is read, why recovery is asymmetric, how it relates to risk per trade and why the worst drawdown is still ahead.
Glossary
28 terms defined in plain language, from R multiple to slippage. Open the glossary.
Trade Strategies That Were Measured First
ATLAS is a decision-support platform. It measures strategies on historical data and never places orders on your behalf.